The latest update to the Weather Brief concerning Hurricane Rafael for the Florida Keys of Monroe County is below.
- A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys from Key West to the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas.
- A Coastal Flood Statement in effect for all the Florida Keys
- Hurricane Rafael will move northwestward and strengthen steadily during the next 12 hours. Rafael is expected to move across western Cuba today and into the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.
- There is high confidence in a forecast track across west-central Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Due to some uncertainty in the exact structure and track of the storm, there remains a bit of uncertainty in the level of potential impacts on the Florida Keys. However, these impacts may include:
- Coastal flooding, with potential saltwater flooding for Atlantic-side communities of the Florida Keys today and tonight. Water levels could reach up to 2 feet above mean higher high water, or about a foot higher than recent high tides.
- The potential for sustained tropical storm force has decreased to just below 1-in-5 for Key West, and just below 1-in-10 for Marathon and Layton. Tropical storm-force winds could arrive as early as this afternoon, but will most likely arrive late this evening.
- The potential for strong/damaging sustained tropical storm force winds of 55 mph or greater is now near 0% for all of the Florida Keys.
- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight across the Lower and Middle Keys, including a few tornadoes. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight for the Upper Keys, including a tornado or two. The most potent thundery squalls will be capable of localized wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.
- Locally heavy rainfall is possible from passing squalls, resulting in flooding of streets and poor drainage areas. Storm total rainfall likely will reach 1 to 3 inches.
- Residents and visitors in the Florida Keys should closely monitor the future progress of Rafael. Protective actions to secure loose outdoor objects from strong wind gusts and Atlantic-side saltwater flooding should be completed this morning. Have more than one way to receive tornado warnings, such as a mobile phone and a NOAA Weather Radio with battery backup.
The next Weather Brief concerning Hurricane Rafael for the Florida Keys of Monroe County will be issued by 11:00 AM EST today.
Briefings are also posted to https://www.weather.gov/media/key/DSS/dssbrief_land.pdf