The latest update to the Weather Brief concerning Hurricane Rafael for the Florida Keys of Monroe County is below.
- A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys from Key West to the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas.
- A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for all the Florida Keys
- Hurricane Rafael will move northwestward and strengthen steadily during the next several hours. Rafael is expected to make landfall near western Cuba late this afternoon as a major hurricane, followed by a turn to the west-northwest tonight and Thursday over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
- There is high confidence in the forecast track, although there remains some uncertainty in the exact structure and size of the storm due to interactions with land. Potential impacts for the Florida Keys may include:
- Coastal flooding, with potential saltwater flooding for Atlantic-side communities of the Florida Keys today and tonight. Water levels could reach up to 2 feet above mean higher high water, or about a foot higher than recent high tides.
- Tropical storm-force winds will most likely arrive this evening including sustained winds 30 to 35 mph and occasional gusts 40 to 45 mph, especially for areas west of the Channel 5 Bridge.
- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight across the Lower Keys, including a few tornadoes. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight for the Middle and Upper Keys, including a tornado or two. The most potent thundery squalls will be capable of localized wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.
- Locally heavy rainfall is possible from passing squalls, resulting in flooding of streets and poor drainage areas. Storm total rainfall likely will reach 1 to 3 inches.
- Residents and visitors in the Florida Keys should closely monitor the future progress of Rafael. Protective actions to secure loose outdoor objects from strong wind gusts and Atlantic-side saltwater flooding should be completed by this morning. Have more than one way to receive tornado warnings, such as a fully charged mobile phone and a NOAA Weather Radio with battery backup.
The next Weather Brief concerning Hurricane Rafael for the Florida Keys of Monroe County will be issued by 5:00 PM EST today.
Briefings are also posted to https://www.weather.gov/media/key/DSS/dssbrief_land.pdf