From Jonathan Rizzo – National Weather Service:
Good afternoon,
A briefing concerning a tropical disturbance with a high potential for development over the next 7 days is attached and posted to https://www.weather.gov/media/key/DSS/dssbrief_land.pdf
Bottom Line:
An area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form late late this weekend or early next week while it moves northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This disturbance has a medium chance (40%) of formation over the next 48 hours (now through 1400 ET Sunday, and a high chance (80%) of formation over the next 7 days.
Until a well-defined center of circulation develops, there is high uncertainty with respect to any potential impacts to the Florida Keys of Monroe County. These include:
- Increased rain chances and a potential for locally heavy downpours late Monday through Wednesday
- Breezy to possibly windy conditions
- Due to the waxing moon phase (towards full moon on August 30th), a potential for minor “king tide” flooding may also increase the potential for low-elevation street flooding during heavy downpours during the mid morning to early afternoon hours especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Please monitor future outlooks closely through the weekend into early next week. With relatively fair weather (light winds and below-normal rainy-season rain chances Saturday), it is a good time to review your seasonal tropical cyclone preparedness plans and be ready to take precaution measures if necessary early next week.
The next briefing is scheduled for Saturday afternoon around 1430 ET, August 26th.
Weather Brief – Tropical Disturbance in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea