- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys from Key West to west of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas.
- Tropical Storm Rafael will move northwest with some increase in forward speed during the next few days. Rafael will continue to strengthen steadily to rapidly during the next 24 to 36 hours. Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane late today near the Cayman Islands, then move across western Cuba on Wednesday afternoon and into the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday evening.
- There is moderate confidence in a forecast track across west-central Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Due to uncertainty in the exact structure and track of the storm, there remains some uncertainty in the level of potential impacts on the Florida Keys. However, these impacts may include:
- Coastal flooding, with potential saltwater flooding for oceanside portions of the Florida Keys Wednesday and Wednesday night. Water levels could reach up to 2 feet above mean higher high water, or about a foot higher than recent high tides.
- The potential for sustained tropical storm force winds is now 2-in-3 at Key West, and just above 1-in-2 at Marathon and Layton. Tropical storm-force winds could arrive as early as predawn Wednesday morning, but will most likely arrive around midday Wednesday.
- The potential for strong/damaging sustained tropical storm force winds of 55 mph or greater ranges from a little less than 1-in-5 at Key West to near 1-in-20 at Marathon.
- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower and Middle Keys, including a few tornadoes. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night for the Upper Keys, including a tornado or two. The most potent thundery squalls will be capable of localized wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.
- Locally heavy rainfall is possible from passing squalls, resulting in flooding of streets and poor drainage areas, especially Tuesday night through Thursday. Storm total rainfall likely will reach 2 to 3 inches.
- Residents and visitors in the Florida Keys should closely monitor the future progress of Rafael. Protective actions to secure loose outdoor objects from strong wind gusts and oceanside saltwater flooding should be completed by late this evening. Have more than one way to receive tornado warnings, such as a mobile phone and NOAA Weather Radio with battery backup.
The next Weather Brief concerning Tropical Storm Rafael for the Florida Keys of Monroe County will be issued by 5:00 PM EST Tuesday afternoon.
Briefings are also posted to https://www.weather.gov/media/key/DSS/dssbrief_land.pdf
Jonathan Rizzo
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
NOAA / National Weather Service
1315 White Street
Key West, FL 33040
Web: https://www.weather.gov/key
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