Potential for Moderate to Major Coastal Flooding is Increasing for the Florida Keys.
- Prolonged strong northeasterly winds across Florida and offshore the Southeastern United States through this weekend into the middle of next week combined with the full moon phase “spring tide” cycle will increase water levels to well-above the levels on tide prediction charts.
- Minor to moderate saltwater flooding is likely to escalate to moderate to major coastal flooding by this weekend, Coastal Flood Warnings likely required for portions of the Upper Florida Keys by this weekend, and Coastal Flood Advisories elsewhere.
- The highest water levels are likely to occur during the nighttime hours of the middle of next week, including Tuesday and Wednesday nights, and Coastal Flood Warnings may be required for all of the Florida Keys.
- Increasing depth of saltwater flooding of low elevation streets, parking lots, yards, and the overtopping of docks will likely be observed over the next several days as we near the peak levels the middle of next week. Some streets may become temporarily impassable to smaller vehicles.
- At this time, plan for peak high tide water levels by the middle of next week could rise around 8 inches higher than what had been observed this past (Thursday) morning.
Rainfall Outlook
- The chance of exceeding one inch of rainfall from Saturday night through Sunday afternoon is up to 30% at Key Largo and Ocean Reef, and up to 45% for Key Largo and Ocean Reef for the period Sunday night through Monday afternoon. The chances are generally 10 to 20 percent for each of those two periods for the remainder of the Florida Keys. Any heavy downpours can cause local rainfall “freshwater” flooding to increase on top of the coastal “saltwater” flooding.
The next briefing will be issued by 9:30 am Monday morning, October 26th…and likely on a daily schedule through late next week.
NWS Florida Keys Operations